Jens 'n' Frens
Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.

"A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures."
  -- Daniel Webster

Saturday, June 16, 2012 :::

Greece is voting again tomorrow. Polls are prohibited within the last couple of weeks before the election; based on the last polls, there was a tight race between center-right party New Democracy, which supports the bailout deal, and far-left, anti-deal Syriza. 250 of the 300 seats are distributed proportionally to the eligible parties, with the remaining 50-seat bonus going to the party with the most votes. Based on the last week of polling, the parties were on track to get roughly the following numbers of seats:
PartySeats (out of 300)
Traditional center-left pro-deal PASOK35-40
Independent Greeks (New Democrats against the deal)15-20
Hard left parties30
Golden Dawn (nationalist)10-15
The British bookees think New Democracy has the edge. I can't imagine this helps Golden Dawn, but I won't otherwise speculate how things have moved in the last few weeks. We'll find out tomorrow.

::: posted by Steven at 12:06 PM

There was reportedly a private poll a couple days ago that showed ND ahead by a couple points, but there's also some talk that, because taxes are due soon after the election and a lot of Greeks have been meeting with accountants and learning that their taxes have quadrupled, there may be a late break toward Syriza. So, yeah.
Early exit polls (believe them to the extent you wish) have PASOK a bit below this (around 30) and Golden Dawn a bit higher (high teens).
Conditional on SYRIZA's winning, the polls would have to be fairly wrong for the communists not to give them a majority of parliament; I assume that's the most likely coalition. If that didn't work out, would their next choice be Independent Greeks or PASOK?
A member of PASOK's national council has said that PASOK won't join a coalition of which SYRIZA is not a part.
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Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.

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