If anyone wants to posit the probability that Gary Johnson will carry New Mexico, preferably expressed as a power of 10, the comments are open.
Sunday, May 06, 2012 :::
I imagine I'll revise this before November if the election looks close, but right now this is my favorite "close race" rubric:
With any luck, I've put each state in one and only one category, and given each candidate 253 electoral votes. I also intend to have ascribed states to candidates in such a way that it is extraordinarily unlikely that either candidate will "steal" a state from the other and not win the election.
- Give Obama every state Kerry won, except for New Hampshire; also give him New Mexico and Nevada
- Give Romney every state Bush won twice, except Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia
- Call New Hampshire, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado neutral
Election night, if a state gets "called" for the candidate to whom I've given it, you can essentially ignore it. If a neutral state is declared, you give that candidate a point for each electoral vote from that state. If a state is declared for the other candidate, the points are doubled. (If Romney gets a congressional district in Maine, or Obama one in Nebraska, that's worth two points.) The margin in points will be the same as the margin in total electoral votes, but there will be less noise as the night goes on in the points count.
If Gary Johnson does carry New Mexico, that's 5 points to Romney.
::: posted by dWj at 3:56 PM