|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jens 'n' Frens
Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.
"A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures."
-- Daniel Webster
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, November 04, 2010 :::
We heard that the Republicans were going to outperform because of a more enthusiastic base, but turnout numbers don't reflect that:But compare it to the previous midterm, 2006: 36 percent of voters were Republican and 38 percent were Democrats. In 2010, 36 percent of voters were Republican and 36 percent were Democrats. Note that voters who identify with one party in 2006 might identify with the other party in 2010, but that this effect should make the turnout ratio skew more toward the Republicans this year than if we broke down the 2010 sample by how those voters identified in 2006.
The real source of the wave? Independents:In 2006, Republicans lost independents 39 to 57, an 18-point deficit. In 2010, Republicans won independents 55 to 39, a 16-point advantage. Labels: psephology
::: posted by Steven at 8:37 AM
|
|
|
|
