Jens 'n' Frens

Alabama -1
Arizona +5
California +2 (next to gain another)
Connecticut -1
Florida +9
Georgia +1
Illinois -3
Indiana -1
Iowa -1
Kentucky -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -2
Michigan -2
Minnesota no change, but got the 435th
Missouri -1
Nebraska -1
Nevada +2
New Jersey -1
New York -6
North Carolina +2
Ohio -4
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -4
Rhode Island -1
Texas +8
Utah +1
Virginia +1
Washington +1
West Virginia -1
Wisconsin -1

Comments:

I ran these numbers myself and ended up with similar results except I had California gaining 3 instead of 2 and New Mexico losing 1. Not sure when exactly that shift would occur as I only calculated for 2030.

CA: 46,444,861/363,584,435*435=55.5676
NM: 2,099,708/363,584,435*435=2.5121

California has the higher fractional part so that should be the one that rounds up. Correct?

That would give CA 56 seats in Congress compared to their current 53 and New Mexico 2 compared to their current 3. Am I screwing this up somehow?

# posted by

Anonymous : 5:09 PM

My numbers match Steven's:

431 CA 55 853723
432 KS 4 850435
433 NC 15 845718
434 TX 40 845665
435 MN 8 843752

Missed the cut: Extra population needed

436 CA 56 838339 300399
437 FL 35 833978 337155
438 KY 6 833201 57790
439 GA 15 831388 179171
440 NY 24 830260 316998

You can't just do a division, it's actually an iterative process. Google for "method of equal proportions".

Note that the census bureau also adds to these numbers a count of nonresident state population. I assumed these would scale from 2000 to 2030 as the resident population did, but the effect is small.

Tom

# posted by

Anonymous : 6:10 PM

Thats interesting.I went and checked on Census Bureu website and spent a lot of time reading there thematic maps.the main growth should be in the Mountain West,Idaho,Arixona,Nevada,and Utah.Oregon,Washington[were I live]has rapid growth as does Oregon.This is projected to continue for half a century until the population density there is reached a reasonable level.Floridas growth on the other hand,will slow down a lot in the coming years,and will be slower than the rest of the countrys.Why?because theres simply no way that state can sustain population growth like that wen the density is already that high.More likely,Florida will only gain 2 over thirty years.Also,to anser your question,that is incorrect,theres no way New Mexico could lose a seat,its population is growing to rapidly for that to be possible.

# posted by

Anonymous : 1:47 PM