Incidentally, I traded email with him this morning. On the Canadian poll web page I recently linked to, three of the four polls they listed for "the Prairies" indicate a tight three-way race, while the latest poll has the Conservatives over 50%. I asked Cosh whether something had happened to precipitate this, or whether it was a polling error. He maintains that the close polls are using unrepresentative samples, and that the Conservatives should do quite well in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. We'll see in a week.
