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Jens 'n' Frens
Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.
"A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures."
-- Daniel Webster
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Monday, February 02, 2004 :::
Here are my latest estimates for tomorrow's results, and where that would put all of the candidates. Note that my numbers from Iowa aren't necessarily anybody else's -- in particular, I didn't use the 15% cut-off, because Kucinich's county delegates won't be ignored -- they'll just have to select a second choice. If I thought they'd spread themselves equally among the big candidates, I'd use the cut-off, but I think what I have is a better indicator of support. At any rate, it only affects a few delegates.
"Other" means delegates from Iowa and New Hampshire.
Looking ahead, Howard Dean's Michigan strategy isn't looking promising -- Kerry could get over 100 of Michigan's 128 delegates.
| AZ | DE | MO | NM | ND | OK | SC | 2/3 Total
(Estimated) | Super | Other | Total |
|---|
| Uncommitted | | | | | | | | | 531 | | | | Kerry | 27 | 8 | 57 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 150 | 82 | 30 | 262 | | Dean | 9 | 3 | | 12 | 2 | | | 26 | 98 | 17 | 141 | | Edwards | | | 17 | | 2 | 11 | 25 | 55 | 23 | 14 | 92 | | Clark | 19 | | | | | 15 | | 34 | 31 | | 65 | | Lieberman | | 4 | | | | | | 4 | 25 | | 29 | | Gephardt | | | | | | | | | 5 | 5 | 10 | | Sharpton | | | | | | | | | 4 | | 4 | | Kucinich | | | | | | | | | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Total | 55 | 15 | 74 | 26 | 14 | 40 | 45 | 269 | 270 | 67 | 606 |
::: posted by Steven at 10:35 PM
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