Sunday, February 01, 2004 :::
Based on the latest Zogby poll of Arizona, Missouri, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, I estimate the following delegate totals on Tuesday:
| AZ | MO | OK | SC | Total |
|---|
| Kerry | 27 | 56 | 16 | 22 | 121 | | Edwards | 0 | 18 | 10 | 23 | 51 | | Clark | 18 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 32 | | Dean | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | | Total | 55 | 74 | 40 | 45 | 214 |
There will also be 26 delegates elected from New Mexico, 15 delegates elected from Delaware, and 14 from North Dakota.
UPDATE: I heard a poll on the radio tonight saying Delaware was going 30-16-14 Kerry-Lieberman-Dean, which suggests the delegates will go roughly 8-4-3. You might notice that here, as with other states, I've assigned delegates to candidates polling 14%, despite the 15% cut-off. This is because 20% or so -- depending on the poll -- is "undecided". I expect very few people to vote for "undecided" Tuesday (though I could hardly blame them, given the alternatives), so I'm assuming they'll divide themselves among the candidates or stay home.
::: posted by Steven at 2:58 PM
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