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Jens 'n' Frens
Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.
"A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures."
-- Daniel Webster
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Saturday, March 15, 2003 :::
Dave Barry's learned that that "coincidence" site I linked to this morning is a hoax.
Meanwhile, the BU men's basketball team lost their game today. As, you'll remember, the UConn women did earlier in the week. I should probably refrain from writing about teams I'm cheering for, but I will mention that BU's women won their conference tournament, which was a surprise.
::: posted by Steven at 6:32 PM
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Ankeny is where Dean and I grew up -- though we did live in Muscatine for a year. Thanks to Dad for the news.
::: posted by Steven at 1:04 AM
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Finding people with Google is fine. This is creepy. Link from Dave Barry.
::: posted by Steven at 12:56 AM
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Friday, March 14, 2003 :::
The Chronicle reports that Cambridge's universities have a substantial impact on the city.
Local research universities provide both financial and intellectual economic benefits to their surrounding communities, a new report released yesterday reveals, and Cambridge officials at both the city and university level are praising the findings while being careful to maintain their positions on controversial town-gown issues.
What's next? Gambling at Rick's?
::: posted by Steven at 8:38 PM
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Orin non-Volokh, while visiting SCOTUSBlog, found this rumor:
Supreme Court vacancies? Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., says he's been told there will soon be two, and is rearranging his staff for what is expected to be the mother of all fights on Capitol Hill to stop any Bush nomination.
::: posted by Steven at 7:20 PM
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ParaPundit.com: China Blocks UN Security Council Resolution On North Korea
China on Thursday acknowledged blocking major powers from discussing the North Korea crisis at the United Nations, saying it was pushing instead for a dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.
::: posted by Steven at 5:06 PM
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OpinionJournal's "best of the web" offers us this linkDiplomacy cannot work in a region where the biggest sources of insecurity lie not between states but within them. What is most wrong about the Middle East is the lack of personal freedom and how that translates into dead-end lives for most of the population — especially for the young....
The Middle East has long been a neighborhood of bullies eager to pick on the weak. Israel is still around because it has become — sadly — one of the toughest bullies on the block. The only thing that will change that nasty environment and open the floodgates for change is if some external power steps in and plays Leviathan full-time. Taking down Saddam, the region’s bully-in-chief, will force the U.S. into playing that role far more fully than it has over the past several decades, primarily because Iraq is the Yugoslavia of the Middle East — a crossroads of civilizations that has historically required a dictatorship to keep the peace. As baby-sitting jobs go, this one will be a doozy, making our lengthy efforts in postwar Germany and Japan look simple in retrospect. But it is the right thing to do, and now is the right time to do it, and we are the only country that can. and this Bill Safire column detailing an apparent Iraqi weapons embargo violation by France and China. I worry to some extent that going to war without the U.N. could prove, in some sense, embarrassing, but if we invade and uncover evidence of serious French and Chinese disregard for even the containment regime, it could be very embarrassing to them and possibly vindicating for us.
::: posted by dWj at 4:49 PM
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Kurd PM: French, Russians to lose Iraq oil
French and Russian oil and gas contracts signed with the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq "will not be honored," Barhim Salih, a leading Iraqi Kurdish official, said in Washington Friday, just before a series of high-level meetings with Bush administration officials.
::: posted by Steven at 4:47 PM
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Romney offers surprise calls
Since he took office, Romney has introduced a range of proposals that don't make state employees happy: he has floated plans to privatize their pensions; force them to pay more for health insurance; and lay off thousands of workers.
But he also has spent a half-hour or two every week making thank-you calls to state workers and appointees. Aides say he'll sometimes decide, with little warning, to pop into his constituent service office, to chat with the letter-readers and phone answerers. Or he'll walk down the hall to the offices of the staff budget writers, to the surprise of the state troopers who guard him.
Common sense, really.
Incidentally, I've liked the governor more, so far, than I expected to when I voted for him.
::: posted by Steven at 2:07 PM
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Viewpoint: U.S. force necessary to liberate Iraq
My main reason for opposing war was that I believed that Saddam was deterred from using weapons of mass destruction as both the United States and Soviets were deterred during the Cold War. However, in reviewing the 1962 Cuba crisis, I found that when the United States was putting pressure on the Soviets to remove their missiles from Cuba in 1962, Castro was screaming at Moscow to launch a nuclear attack on the United States from Cuba -- even though Castro knew that Cuba would have faced destruction from the U.S. response. This unnerved Khrushchev because he knew the conflict would then probably escalate to full-scale nuclear war. Khrushchev was perfectly willing to threaten to use nuclear weapons but was constrained from using them; Castro, however, would not have been so constrained had he had them.
::: posted by Steven at 1:10 PM
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Without grammar or spelling software, students with higher SAT verbal scores made, on average, five errors, compared with 12.3 errors for students with lower scores.
Using the software, students with higher verbal scores reading the same page made, on average, 16 errors, compared with 17 errors for students with lower scores. From ABC News.
::: posted by dWj at 9:59 AM
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Thursday, March 13, 2003 :::
I'm kind of amused to find this story on Yahoo about people using Google to find other people. Has anyone reading this not searched for someone on Google? It's pretty common now, I'd say -- there was even a Buffy episode (beware spoilers) early this season that made reference to it.
I have some information that I try to publicize -- 617-864-3311, for example, got a call the other day from a well-known (within Cambridge) nut the other day, to talk about the city committee, and that's great. My cell phone number (and one of my email addresses), though, I try to keep private.
::: posted by Steven at 4:31 PM
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Phone Company Sends Bill to Dead Man
I like the story's punch line.
::: posted by Steven at 3:33 PM
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I hope the court rules on this.
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review a court ruling that requires the church to allow free speech on a downtown plaza.
The LDS Church bought a block of Main Street adjacent to its temple in 1999 from the city. A public easement guaranteed 24-hour public access to the plaza.
The sale came with a provision that the church would be able to regulate speech, behavior and dress on the property.
Link from SCOTUS blog.
::: posted by Steven at 3:31 PM
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International Eat an Animal for PETA Day
If you haven't heard by now, PETA has started yet another offensive ad campaign. This one really reaches bottom—they are using Holocaust terminology, quotes, and pictures to liken the "slaughter" of animals to the slaughter of the Jews by the Nazis.
I've already received a letter from a child of Holocaust survivors who is, of course, extraordinarily offended. But here's the thing: PETA is known for this kind of outrageous publicity stunt—and that's what it is, an outrageous publicity stunt—and while I am also offended and outraged, there is absolutely nothing we can do that will make PETA change their ad campaign. I'm sure they knew exactly what they were doing, have a plan in mind, and, if they withdraw the campaign, will do it according to their deadlines and their decisions.
So, she's encouraging carnivorous behavior this Saturday. I'm sorry I hadn't heard sooner.
::: posted by Steven at 2:43 PM
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Report that the U.S. Navy has rescued 8 Iraqi fishermen whose boat flipped. Good public relations even if it weren't a good thing to do.
::: posted by dWj at 2:23 PM
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Senate Backs Partial Birth Abortion Ban
If that were the state Senate, I'd probably agree with them. I assume if the bill were sufficiently limited not to make a mockery of federalism (applying only to facilities owned by the federal government, for example), the article would have made this clear.
::: posted by Steven at 11:50 AM
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Fox News reports that PIRG has talked universities into forcing students to contribute through their tuition bills. I actually remember a story about this around ten years ago, when I first learned of PIRG.
If you're a student, read your bill, and make sure your school isn't in on this.
::: posted by Steven at 11:29 AM
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Say what you will about Clinton speaking against the Bush's foreign policy. At least this was on American soil, and at least he wasn't overwhelmingly voted out of office. Jimmy Carter, I'm looking in your direction.
::: posted by Steven at 11:23 AM
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The New York Post has a story on Hans Blix and his appointment. (Link from the Corner.) To sum up:
"The fact that Blix was picked was indicative of what has been the fundamental problem - Russia, France and China have wanted to take a soft stand on Saddam Hussein," said Columbia University professor Edward Luck, who heads the Center for International Organization.
He's actually been less useless than I had expected, which tells you something about my expectations. Even if he were tougher, though, inspectors who aren't getting cooperation from the Iraqi government can't possibly reverse Iraqi weapons development -- they can, at best, slow it down a little.
::: posted by Steven at 11:16 AM
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Metal fan injured by sheep's head:
Norwegian death-metal band Mayhem lived up to its name as a flying sheep's head hit a concertgoer and fractured his skull at a recent concert.
The band was carving up a dead sheep as part of its stage act when the animal's head flew off lead singer Maniac's knife and struck 25-year-old Per Kristian Hagen.
I think that's happened to all of us at one time or an other. I really like this quote from the victim:
''My relationship to sheep is a bit ambivalent now,'' he said. "I like them, but not when they come flying through the air. I have a headache now."
Link from Dave Barry. Go figure.
::: posted by Steven at 10:57 AM
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Derb writes:
Yesterday I was talking with a senior official from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These people don't give out much beyond boilerplate, not to conservative American hacks anyway, but there was one moment when the mask slipped a little. I asked: "Tell me something honestly. Do you think Kim Jong-il is crazy?" The official's face twitched, there was a moment of pained silence, then: "We think he is... very difficult." Everybody laughed (including the official).
Oh dear.
::: posted by Steven at 1:27 AM
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Instapundit also points out this story:
A delegation of African scientists who attended a European Union (EU) conference on agriculture in the developing world has come out in support of the US complaint that EU policies put pressure on African governments to reject food aid containing genetically modified organisms.
Hmm, agricultural exporters are supporting expensive food, and parts of the world that most need cheap food are supporting cheap food.
Except for the US. The US is a net exporter of food (I'm pretty sure), but seems to be supporting free trade -- presumably in part because we develop the techonolgies that make the cheap food cheap, and because we think less starvation worldwide is in our interest, but I'd like to think we're also doing this because it's the right thing to do.
::: posted by Steven at 12:54 AM
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Instapundit, passing along some of his email:
Raise the Union Jack up next the Stars and Stripes in solidarity. Burn the 'Down with France' signs and up with the "Thank you Tony" signs. Tony Blair has been a tireless courageous advocate and ally of America since 8:48 am September 11, 2001. It is time to show him that he is appreciated. It is time to show the British people that the American people are the most generous on the planet and their sacrifice will not be taken for granted.
I like this. Since I seem to have regained some control over the template for this blog, maybe I'll put some flags up, if I get sufficiently non-lazy.
::: posted by Steven at 12:38 AM
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If you like all your Iraq-related facts in one place -- I know I do -- here you go. Link from Instapundit.
::: posted by Steven at 12:29 AM
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Wednesday, March 12, 2003 :::
Over at the Conspiracy, Jacob Levy is discussing why we shouldn't allow the sale of a place in line. Also, Prof Volokh repeats an anecdote emailed to Andrew Sullivan:
I'm out on the street smoking a cigarette and this black dude, wearing a "No War Against Iraq" T-shirt and a bag on his shoulder, comes up to me and asks, "Sir, are you against the war or for the war?" "For the war," I say, at which point he pulls a T-shirt out of his bag that says, "Kick Saddam's Ass!," and tries to sell it to me. I said, "No thanks," and he moved on. Is this a great country or what?
::: posted by Steven at 8:33 PM
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More on Elizabeth Smart's retrieval.
::: posted by dWj at 5:55 PM
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Elizabeth Smart found alive.
::: posted by dWj at 5:49 PM
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Here's the story I was looking for when I stumbled across that San Francisco Chronicle piece. I originally heard this on the radio -- Tony Blair's government has suggestions for a new security council resolution, including
a demand that the Iraqi leader appear on television to make a public declaration in Arabic that he has been concealing weapons of mass destruction but has now made a "strategic decision" to disarm.
What junior-high student came up with that?
::: posted by Steven at 5:20 PM
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War vote pushes U.N. closer to irrelevancy -- there's a headline you don't expect from the San Francisco Chronicle (the more leftist SF newspaper).
::: posted by Steven at 5:15 PM
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Dean, between your "Sympathy for the Devil" crack and your "World War I" crack, I'd say you're on a roll today.
I heard about the Serbian PM's assassination on the radio as well -- the news announcer said, roughly, "a world leader has been assassinated; we'll tell you which one after some commercials". I considered that weird.
I saw the results of the UConn-Villanova game last night. I initially assumed it was a typo. I suppose it had to happen some time. They're probably still the favorite to win the title, but I wouldn't put them above 50%. Nobody has an 80% chance of beating Duke -- not even UConn. If the Duke team were killed in a plane crash or something, I'd probably give UConn 2-1 odds in favor of winning the title.
::: posted by Steven at 4:47 PM
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Serbian PM shot dead. Look for World War I to break out.What I find most interesting about this story is that when I woke up he was still alive, and the news he died came in the form of a radio report that "The Serbian Prime Minister has died of wounds suffered in an assassination attempt." I think we can drop that last word, man.
::: posted by dWj at 9:53 AM
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UConn loses. The odds of them winning the national championship should be downgraded to, what, 80% now?
::: posted by dWj at 9:51 AM
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The Rolling Stones in China:Head of Beijing Time New Century Entertainment, Chen Jixin, said that the band have been told they cannot perform 'Brown Sugar', 'Honky Tonk Women', 'Beast Of Burden' and 'Let's Spend The Night Together'. Of course, in Communist China, Sympathy for the Devil is mandatory.
::: posted by dWj at 9:48 AM
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Tuesday, March 11, 2003 :::
Today's Almanac reminds residents of the East Coast that this year's snow storm wasn't so bad.
::: posted by dWj at 4:11 PM
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Comandante Chavez's Friends
LATE LAST YEAR, 16 U.S. congressmen voiced their approval for Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. Representatives Barney Frank, John Conyers, Chaka Fattah, Jan Schakowsky, Jose Serrano, and others complained in a letter to President Bush that the United States was not adequately protecting Chavez against a groundswell of internal opposition to his increasingly authoritarian rule--an upsurge that might lead to his ouster.
Barney Frank's district comes within about a mile of here.
::: posted by Steven at 1:20 PM
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Instapundit echos the New York Times with a story about refugees from Somalia. I found the punch line amusing.
::: posted by Steven at 11:53 AM
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Arabian assurances that there will be "enough" oil:"We will make sure there is enough oil in the market," al-Naimi told reporters before a meeting of the cartel in Vienna. "There will be no shortage."... Al-Naimi said fears over war was to blame for the sharp rise in oil prices, not a shortage of supply. What does this mean, exactly? A fear that supply will be lower in the future? I'm not sure why the cause of the shortage is relevant to OPEC's decision here, unless they think it will be so temporary that any action will outlast its cause.If OPEC is serious when it says it wants to keep oil prices stable rather than simply as high as possible, rather than just setting quotas at each meeting it should work out a whole schedule of quotas that increase with, say, a moving average of the daily close of the contract for delivery in the month after front-month (how long does it take for oil supplies to work their way to delivery?), actually presenting a God-fearing supply curve to the market rather than waiting until the next meeting to figure out how to tinker by hand with the quantity supplied.
::: posted by dWj at 11:46 AM
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Eric Zorn supports the war, apparently for Tony Blair reasons. (Today's column refers to "suggestion 1441".) To be clear, he supports peace, "But peace is a goal, not a strategy."Eric Zorn — mathematicians: his grandfather was that Zorn — follows in the Royko tradition of firmly left-of-center Tribune columnists constrained by good sense, but opposition to the war seems defensible enough that I figured he'd defend it. (To be clear, where Royko was a blue-collar liberal, Zorn is a white-collar liberal, and their writing styles, while both fun to read, aren't similar.)
::: posted by dWj at 9:56 AM
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Monday, March 10, 2003 :::
"Is March 17th Evacuation Day in Iraq, too?"
That's one of Howie Carr's callers.
::: posted by Steven at 5:14 PM
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There's a former special-forces guy on the Howie Carr show claiming that the French were selling military airplanes to Iraq as of two weeks ago.
::: posted by Steven at 4:53 PM
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Catching up on George Will:Yet it is presumably to counter America's insatiable appetite for using its military that the idea has arisen that America should submit to plans to ``collegialize'' its power. The idea is that any use, even after successive acts of war against America, requires the permission of France, Russia and China, which have not sought U.N. blessings for their respective military interventions to discipline the Ivory Coast, to grind the Chechens into submission and to suffocate Tibet.
::: posted by dWj at 3:36 PM
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John Derbyshire on China:
China's Communist dictators care about one thing only: staying in power. To stay in power, they have to keep the economy moving forward. To do that, they have to maintain, and if possible increase, their exports to the U.S. The communist regime is entirely dependent on our willingness to buy Chinese goods. If we embargoed Chinese goods, many American firms would go out of business. The prices of many things would rise, though other third-world suppliers would soon fill the gaps. The effect on China, however, would be a thousand times more dramatic. Their economy would collapse.
Memo to Hu Jintao: If the U.S. loses a city to some terrorist group, via a weapon that would not have been made if you had helped us shut down the Kim Jong-il regime, or via a weapon you sold, or helped someone develop — if that happens, pal, it will be around 100 years before any American ever again buys any object stamped MADE IN CHINA.
::: posted by dWj at 3:36 PM
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What to do about North Korea? A guest writer at National Review has some thoughts.
::: posted by dWj at 3:36 PM
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I'd love to hear from someone more pro-labour than I on the Broadway musicians' strike. Minima of the kind being discussed — "pay us whether our services are of any use to you or not" — are exactly what give me hives about organized labour. It's not about being paid less than they're worth, as it might have been once; now it's about not being paid enough more than they're worth. When the primary goal of organized labour seems to be to hinder sensible allocation of resources, it's hard for me to imagine where they expect to generate much sympathy.
Someone who knows more than I do about the situation and its history might be able to help me with something else, pro-labour or not. I don't understand why the musicians are on strike against all Broadway plays, and are negotiating with the producers of all Broadway plays as a single entity. Is there a trust of Broadway producers? Is that legal? A year or two ago we almost had a janitors' strike in Chicago that was similar; it was going to affect basically every downtown building. It's hard to imagine that every building is owned by the same entity, or that they're all managed by the same management company; who is it that negotiates with the union, and why are they allowed to negotiate as a single entity?
::: posted by dWj at 1:18 PM
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I think you're right, Steve, and I think both Kelleher and his opponent kind of knew going in that Kelleher was going to lose and that he would have lost in court.
::: posted by dWj at 1:18 PM
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I think Herb Kelleher (of Southwest Airlines) and an other airline's CEO used this method to resolve a dispute a few years ago. Link from the Kitchen Cabinet
::: posted by Steven at 1:12 PM
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2 degrees this morning breaks the old record low of 5, but with the following asterisk: temperatures in the 1890's were recorded at the lake front, while that 2 was taken at O'Hare. The lake has quite a moderating effect, and I don't believe the recording station at Meigs Field even got down to 5 this morning.
::: posted by dWj at 9:51 AM
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When Buffett says that he doesn't see many opportunities, noting that it's often best to sit on your hands, even when money market returns are less than 1%, it's a bit odd to see him then extol the growing float he's got at a cost of 1%. Presumably he thinks that can hold up as opportunities return more easily than trying to generate it all then.
As for derivatives, a fair amount of his problem with them is true of any kind of debt exposure, though the opaqueness — that the extent of debt exposure from derivatives is unclear — is more specific to derivatives. If A lends to B lends to C lends to A, each the same quantity of money with some kind of covenant in the case of a credit downgrade, a credit downgrade for any of the three can create a problem that, looking at the situation as a whole, shouldn't exist, and that's true if the "loans" are derivative obligations as well. If somebody can work out a slick way of unwinding situations like this, I think they'd be doing the financial world a huge favor.
::: posted by dWj at 9:49 AM
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Fox is doing it's "Married by America" tonight. Arranged marriage has a long tradition and much to defend it, but marriage arranged by Fox viewers has not. (Keep in mind, people, that Fox is the channel I watch the second most often; y'all think you want me marrying you off?)
::: posted by dWj at 9:49 AM
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You know, I thought of something relevant that is very much not mentioned in Rubenstein's piece on market efficiency, and that is that the market can get rid of inefficiencies in an efficient manner even if they aren't big enough to cover trading costs and thereby support a direct arbitrage. It works the same way as much else in economics does: I see a Monday effect that I believe will persist, but that I believe will be small enough that I can't simply sell Friday afternoon and buy Monday afternoon and expect to make money. What I can do, though, is decide to postpone a purchase I'd otherwise make Friday afternoon until the next Monday, or move up a planned sale. In each case, there's really no trading cost associated; the only cost is in the urgency of whatever makes me want to do what I want to do. (Presumably if I want to sell, there's a reason, and it's a reason to sell now.)
::: posted by dWj at 9:49 AM
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I hate this post, Steve, because it takes all the good things I wanted to say. "Oh," I think, "let me say something about hyper-rationality", and there it is at the very top of the piece. So to some extent, I'm left restating what he says, but in my own way. (I think there's something novel here, but probably not much. Search his article for "exhausted gold mine" to find the passage most relevant to what I've written; I jumped in, as is my habit, with the talking before finishing the listening, and most of what I wrote was written by him around there.) There is evidence that more energy is spent doing research and trading than is actually efficient; this assertion doesn't even make since if you don't accept that requiring markets to be rational doesn't require that market prices be perfect, merely that they be close enough that to profit off of them requires more work than the abnormal return from such activities can justify. (Even if this is true, I think it's kind of impressive how much of our economy is rationally allocated to price discovery; in fact, I think one of the attractions of Marxism is the belief that this can't possibly be right. Nobody, in a Marxist society, is "wasting" their time collecting tolls — a straight transfer at that point — or changing price labels on goods; these activities are only required to determine what the more directly productive part of the economy should produce. If I didn't believe in the value of such activity, I might become a bit despondent; I write software that communicates orders on securities that derive their value from enterprises that may or may not produce actual consumer goods, which means I'm something like five levels removed, depending on how you count.)
He notes that markets can be rational even if not all investors are; if 2% of investors are perfectly rational, and the other 98% makes sufficiently random and uncorrelated mistakes, the entire 2% weighing in on the same side can often be enough to correct the mistakes. I find this often to be believable, though I'm pretty true some mistakes were being made in a correlated manner 3 years ago today. (Happy anniversary, NASDAQ investors.)
I've been reading some Karl Popper — he appears to be the source of the notion that for a theory to be scientific requires that it be in principle falsifiable, which struck me the way that the student was struck who complained that Shakespeare used too many cliches; it's a familiar enough idea to me that, when I was confronted by its provenance, I was probably less impressed than I should have been. Some of the discussion of behavioral psychology made in this article evokes Popper commenting on theories he classes as pseudo-scientific, such as Freudian psychology, into whose rubric just about any conceivable observation can be crammed and thereby explained, just as easily as its opposite could. It also reminds me of a popular quip in the world of theoretical physics that a good theorist can explain any data, whether correct or not. (Some of modern theoretical physics was as much as called pseudo-science by Nobel Laureate Sheldon Glashow in the mid eighties.) This is meant (I hope) as a bit of self-critique, partially intended to warn against a tempting mistake, much as is the story repeated by Rubenstein of the economist who stops his friend from picking up a $100 bill lying in the street; "If there were really a $100 bill there, someone would have picked it up."
My take on market efficiency in general is similar to my take on evolution (where I may have a less sanguine view of evolution than does Rubenstein): an investigation driven by asking of each feature of an animal "What is the evolutionary advantage of this?" will find some features for which there is none, but it will have a nonobvious answer more often than it has no answer, and to simply assume that anything that isn't obvious to you must be wrong is both incorrect and denies you a lot of interesting investigation. (Indeed, the most elegant results are almost always nonobvious.) I think laymen assume erroneously that they see true market inefficiencies far more often than economists make the opposite mistake; Rubenstein points out that one doesn't see a lot of $100 bills lying around, for exactly the reason given by the skeptical economist.
::: posted by dWj at 9:48 AM
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Sunday, March 09, 2003 :::
Mark Steyn writes:
My problem with ‘old Europe’ is that it’s taken on the characteristic of its capital’s most famous statue: a small boy who just stands there pissing 24 hours a day.
You can read the rest if you like, but it's not "must read" material, as Steyn sometimes does.
::: posted by Steven at 3:41 AM
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