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Jens 'n' Frens
Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.
"A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures." -- Daniel Webster
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Monday, December 01, 2003 :::
Lily Malcolm brings up the point that Libertarians can't be happy with Bush's profligacy; I would expect most Libertarians aren't happy with his foreign policy, either. A while ago I went back to previous election and worked out the state from which the median electoral vote came; for each state, I calculate the number of votes for the President-elect divided by the highest number of votes for any other candidate, and I rank the states in order, accumulating total electoral votes from the top until I get to 269. I can then classify states as being more Republican than the median or more Democrat than the median; thus Ohio might go for Bill Clinton but by less of a margin than most other states, and counts for that election as more Republican than the median.Where I'm going with this is that New Hampshire provided Bush's 243rd through 246th electoral votes, ordered in this fashion, but my projection is that NH will be more Democrat than the median next year; if Bush carries New Hampshire, he wins reelection, while any Democrat who wins the election will carry New Hampshire. This is based on the premise that more residents of New Hampshire who vote Republican are strongly libertarian than is true of the nation at large. (Hence its choice of U.S. Senators. By which I mean, take this theory with a grain of salt.)
::: posted by dWj at 11:59 AM
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