Friday, August 01, 2003 :::
The unemployment rate came out at 6.2% this morning, after coming out at 6.4% the previous month, and 6.1% before that. This number is released with estimates of the size of the labor market and the number of such people employed, and if you don't think last month's figure is an anomaly just from looking at it, look at those data separately. Here is what I have heard:- The size of the labor market from the May report to the June one increased by about 900,000; and
- the number of people employed went down 44,000 from the June report to the July report.
The way I work that out, the number of people working is virtually unchanged in the past two months, while the number who consider themselves part of the job market has increased about 150,000, after increasing by 45,000 and 900,000 respectively in the first of those two months.I don't think I believe that June report. (There's enough imprecision here that the numbers are best used compared to each other, but that's what I'm doing here; I don't even believe the June numbers relative to the ones around them.) Maybe I don't believe any of the numbers coming out. New unemployment claims are down; GDP is up; consumer confidence is way down; unemployment is bouncing around. Take two grains of salt and call me in the morning.
::: posted by dWj at 11:25 AM
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