Monday, June 02, 2003 :::
Kate (one name) reacts to a threat by social conservatives that Bush's election will be in jeopardy if he doesn't get more anti-homosexual. She asks what the threat is, whether these people would withdraw support, and the answer is that, yes, they quite possibly would. As to whether that makes them stupid, the answer to that question is an open one.Primitive classical economics suggests that if you want the car at the price the dealer offers you, you buy it at that price. Experience shows that, even if it looks like a good deal, you might be able to get a better deal if you act as though the price is more than you're willing to pay. It might take longer for you to get the car, but in the long run it's a winning strategy; similarly, he will try to make you think he's not willing to sell it much lower. In a situation of bilateral monopoly, it can be in the interests of each side to present false information about how much they want what they want, even to the point of failing to make certain deals that were otherwise makable — you were willing to pay more than the dealer really needed, but you couldn't find a price that he was willing for you to believe he would accept and you were willing for him to believe you would accept. (If that sentence doesn't parse after two goes, give up and move on.)
The point here is that by strategically shooting yourself in the foot, you can establish incentives for the other party that might, in the long run, prove to your benefit. If everyone knows how low the car dealership will go, the car dealership may have trouble meeting overhead; similarly, if everyone knows that the social conservatives will always turn out for a Republican, the Republicans will ignore social conservatives. It is in the interests of social conservatives that Republicans believe they are willing to withdraw support, and may be sufficiently in their interests that it is worth establishing their credibility once in a while, even at the cost of electing a Democrat.
Libertarians get this a lot, and it's worth noting in that context that if you never support the Republican they're going to ignore you as well; those Libertarians who will never vote for someone with an (R) or a (D) next to their name have to be hoping to elect an (L) someday, as they won't do their cause any good by pulling the major parties in their direction. (Insofar as the major parties know this, at least; what matters is establishing the perception, regardless of how often I write as though the perception and reality will be perfectly aligned.) Similarly a social conservative whose goal is to pull Republicans in that direction need to make their demands plausible to Republicans; anyone who goes too far will simply make himself irrelevant.
::: posted by dWj at 1:03 PM
