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Jens 'n' Frens
Idle thoughts of a relatively libertarian Republican in Cambridge, MA, and whomever he invites. Mostly political.
"A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures."
-- Daniel Webster
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Monday, June 30, 2003 :::
According to political analyst Larry Sabato:
If the 2004 election were held today, President Bush would win re-election with a slim margin in the Electoral College -- 278 votes to the Democrat candidate's 260.
He also says:
Gazing into his "Crystal Ball," the political analyst and commentator projects, "Bush seems to have 231 solid electoral votes, and the Democrat appears to have 210 solid electoral votes.
I don't buy this. There's no way 441 electoral votes are "solid" a year and a half before the election, before we even know who the Democratic nominee will be.
The article goes on to say:
Sabato, "probably the most quoted college professor in the land," according to the Wall Street Journal, predicates his Crystal Ball on what he sees as the perennial polarization of the "Red" and the "Blue." Social issues such as abortion, guns and gay rights have separated the states into Blue "Tolerant America" and Red "Traditional America."
Which reminds me that Ramesh Ponnuru has a piece on NRO today about media bias.
UPDATE: Visiting Sabato's web site, the characterisation of blue America as "tolerant" appears to be his rather than USA Today's. Read Ponnuru anyway.
::: posted by Steven at 2:57 PM
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